Consumer confidence is high, house prices are holding in, and that holds us in good stead as value investors. The global center of economic activity continues to shift away from the US and Europe toward the Asia Pacific region, the Asian middle classes continue their ascent, and Asia leads in many of the new technologies whose adoption the coronavirus has accelerated. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. With a higher AUD/USD rate, some of the stocks affected include CSL (ASX: CSL), Brambles (ASX: BXB), Amcor (ASX: AMC) and Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM) to name a few. The local currency is down 0.5 per cent to 76.66 US cents. The market is also less at risk from a small number of highly valued large growth stocks, and returns this year have been more evenly distributed across sectors, including consumer discretionary and communication services. With industries from beef to wine to barley all coming under attack, the economic fallout has been gradually building, with certain companies such as Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) hit hardest. If last year is anything to go by, the lesson at hand is that spotting the next big trend early enough can pay off handsomely. Randal Jenneke For the period 2021-2025 projections are provided by the IMF October 2020 World Economic Outlook. For the market, the real story for earnings is more likely to concern 2022 rather than 2021, when investors will be looking for strong, sustainable earnings per share (EPS) growth. Investors should monitor which direction the Sino-Australian relationship moves in 2021, however, in the meantime, it may mean that certain stocks heavily dependent on the Chinese market and bilateral relations could continue to see subdued sentiment. Commonwealth Bank has forecasted that Australia's house prices will rise 16% over the next two years in what they're calling a housing market boom. Please do Share this post with friends on Facebook! Specifically, our baseline forecast assumes that an effective combination of vaccine and therapeutic treatments should ultimately emerge to gradually allow an easing of government restrictions on social interaction and a lessening of consumers’ economic hesitancy. UNI-11829. Since the depths of the market crash in March 2020, the Australian dollar has steadily risen from US 55 cents to as high as US 78 cents. The forecast for beginning of April 6829. We believe the company is well placed to return to strong growth in its sleep apnea business over the next six to 12 months. Whether this fades is something investors will need to be on guard for. Even the prospect of travel bubbles remains unclear given the response to local COVID outbreaks recently. We examine the highlights from the big four banks' FY20 and Q3 reports, as well as look at what Citibank and Morgan Stanley currently think of the sector. Australian housing prices look to be on a rocketing path even as summer comes to an end. With the ASX representing just a small fraction of all investment opportunities across the world, we take a look at some of the benefits associated with investing in US shares. As of 6:30am AEDT, futures in the benchmark ASX 200 were trading 0.4 per cent down to 6,586 points. If you're overseas, call us on +61 2 8220 5945. 230704 (WealthHub Securities, we), a Market Participant under the ASIC Market Integrity Rules and a wholly owned subsidiary of National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL 230686 (NAB). With reporting season ramping up both locally and abroad, a host of heavyweight stocks will provide shareholders greater clarity as to their operational performance over recent months. We are cautiously optimistic toward Australian equities in 2021, the only developed equity market that is favoured as an overweight by our global multi-asset colleagues. Public construction spending on buildings and works in 2020 has followed a strong countercyclical trend, providing an offset to weak private sector spending. The outlook for the global economy has improved since the November Statement on Monetary Policy.While the global recovery lost a little momentum late last year after a resurgence of COVID-19 infections in some economies, a number of vaccines have been approved and vaccinations have begun. Please call us on 13 13 80 between 8am and 7pm AEST Monday to Friday. The RBA promised not to lift rates until âwages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. Flexibility will be increasingly sought by tenants, … By far the most pressing issue this year will be the progress of vaccine rollouts across the world. We also have emerging issues in the US surrounding the regulation and taxation of mega-tech companies like Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), which will not only sway the US market, but have a flow-on effect for the ASX tech sector as well. Few words could summarise the year we witnessed in 2020, with investors taken on a roller coaster of emotions. Before acting on any such advice, we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances. 2021 Global Market Outlook – Q2 update: The second coming. There are a number of other quality growth stocks, which we believe are in a similar favourable position to Resmed, such as James Hardie, Seek Group and Aristocrat. What will be the next big trends of 2021? There have been several factors contributing to this trend, with the pattern thus far not too dissimilar from that seen during the Global Financial Crisis. After a challenging year, the Australian property sector is expected to rebound in 2021 The Australian property sector experienced significant uncertainty and transformation in 2020. Temporary password has expired. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) believes that early vaccine availability could add as much as 2% to world GDP growth in 2021, raising it to 7%. Property market on the march as prices primed for growth; The lure of luxury; Regional Australia continues to shine But with the Australian economy faring significantly better-than-expected, the country’s relative success in quashing COVID, and a rising Aussie dollar, any shift in this timeline runs the risk of catching the market off guard. Just over a year ago, in our ASX market outlook piece for 2020, we posed the hypothetical question as to whether the price of iron ore had peaked. We are cautiously optimistic toward Australian equities in 2021, the only developed equity market that is favoured as an overweight by our global multi-asset colleagues. The bank’s most-recent forecast suggested this would be years away and accompanied by advanced notice, however, one central bank official recently suggested that next year might be in play. Please try again. However, strong retail trade growth has bolstered the retail sector. Australians typically spend more on tourism and foreign travel than other OECD countries as much greater distances dictate longer holiday trips. For now, economic forecasts for 2021 for both the domestic economy and the world remain highly uncertain, with low visibility also for corporate earnings. Short term, for the next three to six months, some headwinds remain, notably the impact on the US and European economies of second coronavirus waves this winter, plus delayed and possibly smaller fiscal stimulus. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour marketâ. ASX predictions for April 2021. Most companies are seeing activity and profits rebound and Australians, with few foreign travel options, are spending more at home. Australiaâs economic recovery is likely to be uneven, and the country is expected to continue to suffer from the drag of strict international border closure for some time yet. It has spurred on the likes of BHP (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) and Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) to all-time highs. CommSec’s expert team keep you up to date with live share market news and reports, videos, stock prices and trends. With that in mind, the US Federal Reserve’s Board meetings will be watched closely throughout the year, including its trajectory for easing bond-buying activity and increasing interest rates. So, we think that the outlook is quite healthy. Account is disabled, please call us on 13 13 80 between 8am and 7pm AEST Monday to Friday. Meanwhile, gold had a stellar year in 2020, gaining 22% in USD terms. Indices Shares Bank Australia Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Dividend In the meantime, China appears to have been the only major economy to grow in 2020. It will be a task full of challenges, including manufacturing and logistical bottlenecks, let alone the unknown timeline as far as reaching herd immunity. /content/nabtraderedesign/en/investor/insights/latest-news/news/2021/01/australia_2021_share. With all the uncertainty, travel, leisure and international education remain some of the vulnerable sectors in 2021, likely to continue dividing investors’ and drawing notable trading interest. The resounding answer to that question was no, as evidenced by the commodity recently passing US$170 per tonne. Market experts say Australian shares will rebound in 2021, thanks to COVID-19 vaccines ... As that old saying goes, "hindsight is 20/20", and it certainly applies to the share market every year. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken by WealthHub Securities in reviewing this material, this content does not represent the view or opinions of WealthHub Securities. Stock markets are forward-looking mechanisms, however, and good news on the vaccination front has given investors hope. , Firstlinks. Maximum value … But will the tech trends that emerged last year remain prevalent throughout 2021? Nevertheless, a degree of optimism is warranted. By preparing for a range of possible outcomes in 2021, including a market crash, it may be possible to obtain higher long-term returns. We're available Monday to Friday, between 9am and 5pm AEDT. My base case expectation remains for a fairly benign interest rate outlook this year, with continued broad policy alignment between Australia and the U.S. Offshore news is likely to be the key driver for the local market this week, with market pundits now looking at the prospect of a new wave of fiscal stimulus, while US Congress mulls a potential impeachment of President Donald Trump. The S&P 500’s current price-to-earnings ratio (its market value per share divided by its earnings per share) is high relative to its historical value. The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. These businesses also have a profound impact on the make-up of the ASX, so the trajectory of the Australian dollar could play a critical role this year in determining the year-end finish for the market. Stay on top of the changing Australian and global markets with our market summary page. Accordingly, if we end 2021 with no policy change and the market essentially expecting no policy change over 2022 either, bonds yields need not rise much further from where they currently are. Arguably more important for the ASX, however, will be Australia’s relationship with China, which deteriorated significantly in the second half of last year. As such, a vaccine is all the more important to drive consumer confidence and business sentiment. This article does not reflect the views of WealthHub Securities Limited. Whether it was interest rate cuts, quantitative easing or various other measures, no stone was left unturned in an effort to help bring stability to the global economy. SelfWealth provides a suite of benchmarking tools so you can compare your own portfolio to other investors in the Community based on performance, SafetyRating and WealthCheck Scores. Australian equities should continue to outperform New Zealand equities over the next year. Last year, central banks around the world embarked on an unprecedented effort to stimulate their respective economies. With the change of government administration in the US, it remains to be seen whether there is a political reset as far as the relationship between the United States and China. With the supply of iron ore out of Brazil still severely disrupted, and China’s thirst for the commodity showing no signs of abating, the cycle is certainly more pronounced than anyone expected and will come under consideration in the year ahead. Off the back of last year’s volatility, many observers expect a more subdued year ahead for the stock market, however, there are still a host of considerations investors should think about if investing in shares in 2021. Australia’s stock market dropped to its lowest point in three weeks following a global share sell-off sparked by the new, mutated strain of COVID-19. Any advice contained in the Information has been prepared by WealthHub Securities without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. While the likes of Qantas (ASX: QAN) are optimistic that international travel could start from the middle of this year, government and medical officials have suggested that the entirety of 2021 may even prove unlikely given the scale of vaccine rollouts required not just here, but in other parts of the world. Housing Market Forecast 2021's views for August and 2021. Chinaâs economy has also largely returned to normal, the only major economy to have done so, and this is good news for Australia, despite increased trade tensions and the cooling in political relations between the two governments. Please select "Forgotten Password" to reset your password. âHerd immunityâ may take a bit longer to achieve, and an early return in 2021 to pre-COVID conditions could yet prove wishful thinking. Have we seen a permanent shift in behaviour favouring things like cloud-computing, online collaboration, ecommerce and digital payment technologies like PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL)? The logistics and financing are not straightforward, and it may well take longer than we currently expect. Given the challenges of rolling out the coronavirus vaccine globally, we are cautious toward the marketâs rotation into lower-quality cyclicals or heavily impacted sectors like travel and question the sustainability of the recent move. The negative short-term economic costs and disruption from the coronavirus do not detract from the longer-term positive case for Australian equities. Moreover, we consider commodities a leading indicator for Australian stocks. One of the biggest drivers has been a weaker US dollar on account of monetary printing and major government spending in the United States. It can be expanded in the future to include other areas such as services, becoming a driver for closer Asian economic integration. Please select "Forgotten Password" below to reset your password. We favour some of the high-quality growth stocks that can benefit from a low-growth, low-inflation and low interest rate world. With the US expected to adopt more measured policies toward China, there is an opportunity for Australia to recalibrate ties also, avoiding further Chinese tariffs. The landlord-tenant relationship will need to adjust. Force Gauge and Torque Meters Market 2021 | Analysis by Recent Trends, Development by Regions to 2025; Capsule Coffee Market : Share, Growth Forecast- Industry Outlook 2021 – 2025 | Emerging Players- Nestle Nespresso(Switzerland), Illy(Italy), Vittoria Food & Beverage(Australia) Share. Aside from the public safety element, this is seen as a lynchpin to reopen the global economy. We regard the Australian economy as being in as good shape as any of the developed economies. Please try again later. After last year’s false start, the prospects for a sustained reopening of economies through the second half of 2021 appear promising. ... 2021 Global Market Outlook - Q2 update. Also, with the Scott Morrison Government doing well in the polls, an early federal election in 2021 cannot be ruled out, despite the Prime Minister affirming recently that he is a âfull termerâ. Regardless of the market’s course throughout 2021, it’s worth keeping an eye out for those companies facing headwinds, and those with the potential to bolt from the blue. The servicing cost of large fiscal deficits is low, thanks to the aggressive monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia is tipped to maintain interest rates at rock bottom levels potentially until 2024. The agreement eliminates tariffs and quotas for 65% of regional trade in goods, with an ultimate target of 90% in 20 yearsâ time. As we’ve touched on, with vaccines being deployed this year, many countries are hoping to reopen their economies. It brings China, Japan and South Korea - the three largest regional economies - under a regional trade deal for the first time. Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2021 5. However, the majority of these delayed projects are expected to come online in 2021 and lead to a rebound in capacity additions. Elsewhere, copper is trading at its highest level since 2013, while lithium stocks have caught a surge of interest in recent months as electric vehicle development heats up, and as the price moves away from its historical bottom. Now, with the prospect of more government spending and stimulus in the US, and some concerns around inflation, gold is sure to remain a hot topic in 2021. Account locked. Our Australia stock market outlook for 2020 and 2021 is bullish. While it is possible the hostilities between the nations will tone down, investors will be looking to see whether geopolitical policy initiatives from the Trump administration are wound back. Oil has started the year around an eleven-month high, something that would have seemed unlikely when it dipped into negative territory last year. As such, following his lead could be a sound move. While Beijing has imposed trade restrictions and informal bans on a number of Australian exports, demand for Australian iron ore is significantly higher year on year. Furthermore, a risk-on attitude towards assets, something that typically works in favour of the Aussie dollar, has also played a part. We expect to see strong demand by China for Australiaâs commodity exports in 2021. GPO Box 4545 With regard to positive news on vaccines, the undertaking of manufacturing and distributing vaccines on a global scale is huge and without precedent. Share Market Outlook 2021 Australia's #1 Low Cost Online Trading Platform - SelfWealth And finally, the strength of the commodities market, particularly iron ore, has also given rise to a stronger Aussie dollar thanks to the influence that this sector has in driving Australia’s domestic GDP. Economic Outlook. The move sparked strong performances from companies such as Saracen Mineral Holdings (ASX: SAR) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), even though that rally faded in the final quarter of the year. The RCEP economies already have intra-regional trade shares of 50% or more (based on exports), and increased regional integration should see this rise over time. Australian Growth 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020-8-6-4-2 0 2 4 %-8-6-4-2 0 2 4 % GDPGrowth Year-ended Quarterly Source: ABS December 2020 G D P C o n s u m p t i o n D w e l ... March 2021 1 Apr 21. 2021 Outlook The Aussie economy is robust at the moment, and we believe that will continue. International travel and border reopenings will also be pivotal for the economy. Widespread distribution of the vaccines should be forthcoming by Q321, however, Kasman cautions that “the … Taxation, legal and other matters referred to on this website are of a general nature only and should not be relied upon in place of appropriate professional advice. Last year, it was Afterpay (ASX: APT), which soared nearly 300%. Home prices grew an astonishing 2.1% in February according to newly released housing market data. The Australian share market is set to come off its new year high, as the nation and the US grapples with what 2021 could really bring. Following last year’s unpredictable turn of events, the lesson at hand for investors is that one should never write off the impossible. On the positive side, consensus expectations are not too demanding, with EPS growth of just 6% in FY21 following a 20% decline in FY20 (MSCI Australia in US dollars). However, much of this has been spurred on by government stimulus, and as seen in the US, once this stops, growth fades. The volatility that was witnessed in February extended into March, but global shares lifted over both the month and quarter. On this page we look at some of the highlights from the REA Insights Property Outlook Report 2020, or you can download the full report below. It is a development with potentially greater longer-term than immediate significance for a highly competitive market economy like Australia. With LNG prices also hitting record highs, the commodities cycle has started the year in full swing. With key state and federal elections due in 2023, fiscal policy is not expected to tighten much as the pandemic programmes start to unwind. In view of the ongoing risks, we have maintained exposure to some defensive growth names as well as quality cyclical growth. Financial markets were beneficiaries of an unprecedented level of fiscal support, while a record number of new investors signed up to invest in the stock market for the first time. RBA easing has provided strong support to the Australian housing market, with little forced selling due to COVID-19 thanks to record-low mortgage rates, loan deferrals, JobSeeker income support payments and stamp duty reform in New South Wales that is encouraging more first-time buyers into the market. This page has economic forecasts for Australia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Australia economy. Send forms to forms@nabtrade.com.au or for general enquiries contact us on enquiries@nabtrade.com.au, nabtrade Australia 2021 market outlook: cautiously optimistic In terms of the global backdrop, the election victory by Joe Biden in the US and news of several potentially highly-effective vaccines against COVID-19 have significantly reduced uncertainty over the global outlook for 2021 and beyond, which is positive for all markets, including Australia. © Australia's #1 Low Cost Online Trading Platform – SelfWealth, major exporters that earn most of their earnings or report in USD benefit from a weaker Australian dollar. These efforts acted as a catalyst for financial markets. Melbourne, Victoria 3001. Stock Market Outlook 2021: Bull Market, But Buckle Up ... returns of 2020, stocks may appear expensive, deterring investors. Analysis as at 11 January 2020. A stronger Aussie dollar, however, is in itself seen as a headwind in some quarters for economic growth, especially as major exporters that earn most of their earnings or report in USD benefit from a weaker Australian dollar. COVID-19 saw the acceleration of trends including employees choosing to work … Like This Article. These positive secular trends are not being called into question. The outlook also takes into account ongoing policy uncertainty and market developments such as the most recent auctions and newly financed projects before the Covid-19 outbreak. Download the full REA Insights Property Outlook Report 2021. Australia Retail Market Outlook 2021 2020 saw the retail sector in Australia recalibrate as lockdowns, trading restrictions and border closures impacted trading conditions and shifted consumer demand. ... 2 Likes. We see some scope for China-Australia relations to improve rather than cool further. The Australian share market has supportive valuations (the price to book value ratio is close to its five-year average at 2.0), a decent dividend (trailing dividend yield of 3.2%), while FY20 earnings estimates have bottomed and are being revised higher (three-month change = 2.7%). For 2021, our outlook for the global economy hinges critically on health outcomes. Any statements as to past performance do not represent future performance. Each SelfWealth member has an alias, so any shared information is anonymous. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and five other Asian countries, including Australia, signed a deal that will eventually form a free trade area that includes over 30% of the worldâs GDP today, rising to around 50% by 2030, even without the participation of India. Randal Jenneke is Head of Australian Equities at T. Rowe Price. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement, for example, points to increasing regional economic liberalisation and integration. J.P. Morgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman forecasts global GDP growth reaching 5.8% and notes that optimism about 2021 global growth is building on the back of news that vaccines are now being rolled out to permanently sever the link between the COVID-19 virus and mobility. Thus far, prior to vaccines, pent-up demand has driven retail sales growth. As the first trading updates for the recent half start to trickle through, there were winners and losers across the board, however, the undisputed star of the week was Afterpay, which passed Telstra’s market cap. One thing we can be reasonably sure of, however, is that overall 2021 is likely to be a better year than 2020, with more light at the end of the tunnel as the year progresses. Australia’s ability to quash the coronavirus has also provided optimism to global currency traders around the prospect of a better economic recovery here than abroad. Under a best-case scenario, the global economy could embark on a broader, more sustainable recovery from the middle of this year. In terms of the global backdrop, the election victory by Joe Biden in the US and news of several potentially highly-effective vaccines against COVID-19 have significantly reduced uncertainty over the global outlook for 2021 and beyond, which is positive for all markets, including Australia. We see a very strong correlation between Australia’s stocks and global stock markets. On current production plans, it should be possible to inoculate a significant proportion of the worldâs population this year. This might not only prove easier said than done, but it may also fall down the pecking order as the Biden administration focuses on its domestic agenda and containing COVID. 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